Transfer Avoidance Value Model

Hospital profile

Transfer-eligible cases per year Inpatient transfers out in the covered specialties.

Miles to nearest tertiary center

Rural network median is 76 miles.

Specialties covered

Three or more is the high-engagement threshold.

Medicare share of inpatient volume

62%

Annual inpatient discharges Drives the case-mix calculation on IPPS only.

Annual platform cost Vendor-neutral placeholder. Enter the quoted price you are evaluating.

Modeled annual value

Net annual value

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after platform cost

Return

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Cases retained

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Breakeven volume

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Value component	Annual

Assumptions and parameters

Contribution margin per retained case, commercial and MA

Contribution margin per retained case, Medicare IPPS

Allowable cost per retained case, CAH Medicare pays 101% of this. Margin is the 1%.

Medicare base payment per DRG-weighted discharge

Downstream revenue retained per patient Imaging, lab, follow-up and specialty visits that follow a transferred patient to the receiving system. Requires local validation.

Swing-bed conversion rate

15%

CAH only. Retained patients transitioning to swing-bed post-acute care.

Swing-bed net per day × average days Default assumes $180 net across 5 days.

Societal cost per avoided transfer Natafgi et al. 2018. Reported as a memo line. It is not hospital margin.

Where this model stops

This is the generic model. Every input above is a sector placeholder, not a client figure, and it is deliberately vendor-neutral. It will tell you whether the financial argument holds in shape. It will not tell you whether it holds for the hospital you are about to walk into.

The version that closes a deal is built on that hospital's designation, payer mix, transfer log and cost report, with the Critical Access case constructed separately because case-mix uplift is roughly three quarters of the value here and disappears entirely under cost-based reimbursement. That is roughly two thirds of the rural market needing an argument this page cannot make.

A3HCS builds that case before your first hospital call. Startup & commercial advisory →